Showing posts with label Czech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Czech. Show all posts

Monday, October 23, 2017

22/10/17: Italian North: another chip off Europe's Nirvana


Having just written about the Czech electoral pivot toward populism last night, today brings yet another  news headline from the politically-hit Europe.

In a non-binding referendums in two wealthiest Italian regions, Veneto and Lombardia, the voters have given local governments strong mandates to push for greater autonomy from Rome and the Federal Government. Both regions are dominated by the politics of Lega Nord, a conservative, autonomy-minded party with legacy of euro scepticism, strong anti-immigration sentiment and the past promotion of outright independence for the Northern Italy.

In both referendums, turnout was relatively strong by Italian standards (58% projected for Veneto and over 40% for Lombardia). And in both, exit polls suggest that some 95% of voters have opted for stronger regional autonomy.

The referendums were not about outright independence, but about wrestling more controls over fiscal and financial resources from Rome. Both regions are net contributors to the Italian State and are full of long run resentment over the alleged waste of these resources. Both regions want more money to stay local.

In reality, however, the vote is about a combination of factors, namely the EU policies toward Italy, the monetary conditions in the euro area, the long-term stagnation of the Italian economy and the centuries-old failure of Italian Federal State to reform the economy and the society of the Southern Italian regions. Italy today is saddled with stagnation, huge youth unemployment, lack of business dynamism, weak entrepreneurship, dysfunctional financial institutions, high taxes, failing and extremely heterogenous public services, collapsed demographics and centuries-old divisions. Some of these problems are european in nature. But majority are Italian.

Greater autonomy for wealthier regions, in my view, is a part of the solution to the long running problems, because it will create a set of new, stronger incentives for the Southern regions to reform. But in the end, it is hard to imagine the state like Italy sustaining its membership in the euro area without an outright federalization of the EU.

In the nutshell, within a span of few weeks, the dormant political volcano of the Europe has gone from stone cold to erupting. Spain, Austria, Czech, & Italy are in flames. Late-stage lava flows have been pouring across Poland, Hungary and the UK, Slovakia and parts of the Baltics for months and years. Tremors in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, (especially Eastern Germany) and Finland, as well as occasional flares of populist/extremist activity in other parts of the Paradise are ongoing. And, it is only a matter of time before populism resurges in France.

All of this with a background of stronger economic growth and booming markets. So wait till the next crisis/recession/market correction hits...

Sunday, October 22, 2017

21/10/17: Prague Pages Brussels... Following Vienna


Just after Austria, the Czech Republic too has swung decisively in the direction of embracing populism as Populist billionaire's Eurosceptic party wins big in Czech Republic.

As Radio Praha describes it: "The Czech Donald Trump or Silvio Berlusconi, maverick millionaire, political populist, mould breaker; these are all labels that have been tagged on to ANO leader Andrej Babiš".

Jakub Patocka for the Guardian: "Open racism has become a normal part of public discourse. Trust in democratic institutions and the European Union has been crumbling before our eyes. It is shocking how easily and quickly this has happened. Many Czechs are going to the polls with grim fears for the future. A broad coalition of democratic parties is not likely to have enough votes to control parliament. Apart from the far right, communists and a peculiar Czech version of the Pirate party are expected to do well."

The headlines from Prague are sounding more like something the 'Kremlin-backed' news outlets would produce. Except, they are printed by the mainstream international media this time around.

But things are much worse than Babis and ANO victory and 29.8 percent of the vote implies. Four out of top five parties by voting results are now parties with populist leanings, far removed from the traditional Czech elites. The mainstream opposition conservative party, the Civic Democrats, are now a distant second with only 11.2 percent of the vote. Czech Republic's "most radical anti-migration, anti-Islam and anti-EU party, Freedom and Direct Democracy", came in the third place with 10.8 percent of the vote, statistically indistinguishable from the Civic Democrats. Another populist party - the Pirate party - is on 10.6 percent with a Parliamentary representation for the first time in its history. And the Communists got 7.9 percent. In simple terms, more than 59 percent of the voters have gone either extreme Left or extreme Right of the Centre, and backed populist politics.


Credit: Petr David Josek/Associated Press

In a recent paper, we explain how the trends amongst younger voters around the world are shifting away from support for liberal democratic values. These shifts are now starting to translate into votes.
Corbet, Shaen and Gurdgiev, Constantin, Millennials’ Support for Liberal Democracy Is Failing: A Deep Uncertainty Perspective (August 7, 2017): https://ssrn.com/abstract=3033949

Monday, December 15, 2014

15/12/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, December 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for EMEA:

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Croatia and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, the outlook changes to expansion for Croatia over next two quarters." In previous survey, the same three countries were described as likely to remain recessionary.

"At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia and the Ukraine. Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 58% of 43 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 28% increase from the net 30% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Romania, Israel, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia


Previous report was covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/23102014-blackrock-institute-survey.html

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

23/10/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, October 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for EMEA:

"The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Croatia, Egypt and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Hungary and Turkey to be in a recessionary or contraction phase. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Egypt and Turkey"

Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Israel, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia

"At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia and the Ukraine."


Global: "respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 43% of 37 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 7% decrease from the net 50% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy"

Previous month results are here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/6102014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html


Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Monday, October 6, 2014

6/10/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, September 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for North America and Western Europe (covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/10/6102014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html). Here are the survey results for EMEA:

"The consensus of respondents describe South Africa, Croatia, Slovenia, Russia and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Romania to be in a recessionary or contraction phase. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and South Africa. At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Turkey, Slovenia, Hungary and the Ukraine."

Global: "respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 50% of 36 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 9% decrease from the net 59% figure last month. [There was also a net decrease from 85% two months ago]. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."


Two charts to illustrate:


Previous month results are here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/2382014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Saturday, August 23, 2014

23/8/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, August 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for North America and Western Europe (covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/2382014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html). Here are the survey results for EMEA:

"…this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Croatia and the Ukraine in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Russia, Hungary and Turkey to be in a recessionary or contraction phase."

6 months out: "Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and Hungary and an even split between expansion or recession for Turkey."

12 month out: "At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia, Hungary, Turkey and the Ukraine."

Global: "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 59% of 32 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 26% decrease from the net 85% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Two charts to illustrate:


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Romania, Israel, Egypt, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia.



Previous month results are here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/07/1172014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

16/7/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, July 2014


In an earlier post I covered EMEA results from the BlackRock Investment Institute latest Economic Cycle Survey. Here, a quick snapshot of results for North America and Western Europe.

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 81% of 97 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, compared to net 67% figure in last month’s report."

"The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

"Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents described Greece and France to be in a recessionary state, with the even split between contraction or recession for Belgium. Over the next 6 months, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Greece and France. Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."


"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or stay the same with the exception of Finland which is expected to stay the same."


See June data for comparatives here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/06/1462014-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html - very interesting changes in the first chart above can be traced.

Ireland top question analysis:



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Friday, July 11, 2014

11/7/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, July 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.

Per BII: "With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region.

The consensus of respondents describe Russia, the Ukraine and Croatia be in a recessionary state, with an even  split of economists gauging Kazakhstan and South Africa to be a in a recessionary or contraction. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Kazakhstan and South Africa.


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Slovenia, Poland and Slovakia

At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Hungary and the Ukraine.


Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 85% of 34 respondents expecting a  strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 14% increase from the net 71% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Saturday, June 14, 2014

14/6/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, June 2014


BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.

Per BI: "With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region.

The consensus of respondents describe Russia, South Africa, Slovenia, Croatia, and the Ukraine to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Kazakhstan to be a in a recessionary or contraction.
Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Egypt, Poland and Slovakia

Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for only Kazakhstan.

At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Israel, Kazakhstan, Slovenia, South Africa and the Ukraine.


Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 71% of 41 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 7% decrease from the net 78% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."


Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.


Tuesday, May 6, 2014

6/5/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, April


BlackRock Institute published their April 2014 survey of economic conditions in EMEA region. Here are some takeaways:
  1. "The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Slovenia, Croatia, Turkey and Turkey to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Kazakhstan and Egypt to be a in a recessionary or contraction."
  2. "Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for only Egypt."
  3. "At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Slovenia, Turkey, Russia and the Ukraine."


Russian economy specifics:
  • "How do you think Russia's economy will develop over the next 12 months?" 72% of respondents expect economy to become weaker or a lot weaker
  • "At this time, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy is?" 100% of respondents estimate that the Russian economy is currently in a recession.
  • "Over the next 6 months, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy will be?" 86% of respondents expect Russian economy to remain in a recession.
  • 57% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy is operating with a positive or zero output gap.
  • 71% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy operates at above trend inflation that is increasing.


"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 78% of 40 respondents expecting a  strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 9% decrease from the net 87% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: Red dot represents South Africa, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Poland and Slovakia.



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts

Saturday, February 8, 2014

8/2/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, February



BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region. Emphasis is mine.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region.

"The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, Croatia, Turkey and, the Ukraine to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging South Africa to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for South Africa and the Ukraine."


Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Romania, Poland, Slovakia

And out 12 months: "At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Turkey."


"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 88% of 43 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 6% increase from the net 82% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Friday, January 17, 2014

17/1/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, January


BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region. Emphasis is mine.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region."

The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, Croatia, Egypt and, the Ukraine to be in a recessionary state and expected to remain so over the next 6 months except for Croatia, where there is an even split between expansion and contraction.

Note: Red dot represents Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Hungary, Romania, Israel, Poland and Slovakia

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen with the exception of Turkey. So Russia is improving 6mo forward improvement in outlook on current phase (see above chart), but Ukraine is expected to remain in a late cycle recession. Out at 12mo horizon, Ukraine is still expected to underperform Russia.


Note Slovenia's performance expectations. It is worth noting that the IMF is releasing Slovenia's economy's assessment, so it would be interesting to take a comparative look at the Fund expectations.


Globally, respondents to the EMEA survey "remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 82% of 61 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 8% increase from the net 75% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

12/12/2013: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, December 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.


"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Egypt and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state.

Forward expectations:

  • Over the next 6 months, "the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and Egypt and an even split between expansion and contraction for Croatia."
  • "At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of Slovenia and Ukraine."

Global economy view from the region: "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 74% of 58 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months, unchanged from last month’s report. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy"


Note: Red dot represents Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Israel, Kazakhstan, and South Africa



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

5/11/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 A note on latest survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region."

"The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Egypt to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia, Croatia and Egypt and an even split between expansion and contraction for the Ukraine."

"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of Russia." Russian sentiment has deteriorated significantly in recent months.

"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 73% of 57 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – a 13% decrease from the net of 86% figure in last month. The consensus of economists project a shift from early cycle to mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:

Note: Red dot represents Slovakia, Poland, Israel, Kazakhstan, and South Africa. 


Friday, September 6, 2013

6/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: EMEA: August 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.
 Note: my note on survey results for North America & Western Europe is available here.

Per summary: "... this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. 

The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Egypt and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Slovakia to be in expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, all these countries are expected to stay in a recessionary state except Russia, Slovakia and Croatia. 

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of the Ukraine and Turkey."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts:



Saturday, August 10, 2013

10/8/2013: EMEA Forward Economic Conditions: BlackRock Institute



The BlackRock Investment Institute Economic Cycle Survey : EMEA Aggregate Results were published recently, so here is the update.

Note: the views expressed in the survey are those of the external panel of economics and finance experts and not of the BlackRock Investment Institute.
The results of the survey must be viewed as being subject to the depth of country-level responses considerations, as these can differ widely.

Per the results: "this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a generally bullish outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia and Czech Republic currently to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Slovakia to be in a expansion or contraction. Over the next 2 quarters, the consensus shifts for all these countries, except the Ukraine and Slovenia, towards expansion.
At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen, with the exception of Kazakhstan and Turkey."

In comparison, "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 68% of 62 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months - this is marginally lower than from a net 70% in last month’s report."

Two charts to map regional economies prospects:



Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Eastern European Currencies & Soros

Per Financial Times report (here): CBs of Eastern Europe are issuing coordinated statements calling recent currency weakness unjustified and raising the possibility of intervention on foreign exchange markets. Take this, in line with George Soros' weekend cry to arms for state-led socialism to replace liberal financial markets regulation (as if such really does exist in any developed country today). Recall the classic lesson taught by Soros in the case of British experience with ERM: Central Banks interventions in Forex markets impoverish taxpayers and enrich George Soros.

So what should the strategy be for anyone with a position in Poland’s zloty, Hungary’s forint, the Czech koruna and the Romania’s leu? These currencies rallied after the statement. Three scenarios are thus possible:
Scenario 1: CBs mount a spirited defense driving currency valuations up for ca 1 month before all currencies come down again on the back of excessive fiscal deficits, private economy contractions and implosions of housing bubbles (in some countries), with private banking continuous deterioration (in other). Foreign banks and domestic banks use the opportunity to aggressively expatriate capital at higher currency valuations, driving down demand for domestic paper. Shorting now is a 'win' proposition.
Scenario 2: CBs do not mount a serious/credible defense and instead preside over further devaluation to bring currencies down to longer term recessionary equilibrium levels. Foreign banks, suffering their own crisis at home continue to expatriate capital, further contributing to devaluation pressures. Shorting now is a 'win' proposition.
Scenario 3: George Soros gets his wish and EU-styled over-regulation reigns supreme over the Forex markets in which case we get stiffening of the ERM mechanism and a coordinated effort on behalf of the EU to drive down the Euro over a period of time. No Eastern European country would enter an ERM band at a peril to its exporters, so Poland (and potentially at a later date - Hungary, Romania and Czech) will devalue their currencies before the ERM accession to boost the chances of economic recovery. Shorting now is a 'win' proposition.

As with the 1990s ERM crisis, this is a one-way bet assuming you have a stomach for being open in the Eastern European currencies in the first place. (All usual caveats apply of course, plus a disclosure: I hold no open position in the above currencies.)